Higher Risks Of A Global Recession In Next 12–18 Months: Moody’s Economist


According to an economist, there are “uncomfortably” higher odds that a slump can strike the global economy in the upcoming 12–18 Months and lawmakers may not be able to change that track. Mark Zandi—Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics—said, “I feel perils are extremely higher that if something does not stick to draft then we do have a slump. I will also say that even if we don’t have a downturn in the next 12–18 Months, I believe it is quite clear that we will have a much poor economy.” He added that shunning a slowdown in a financial activity needs several aspects to “stick to script” together. Zandi explained that it includes the U.K. attempting to find a resolution to Brexit, President Donald Trump not intensifying the tariff battle with China, and central banks maintaining their monetary stimulus.

On asking about the likelihood of a global economic downturn, he told CNBC, “I think they are uncomfortably higher.” Other economists seemed less concerned about a slump but shared Zandi’s response that growth will continue to deteriorate. Eswar Prasad—Professor at the Cornell University—said the consumer spending has boosted support growth in many economies, even as drive falters in other domains. But that is just not sustainable, he said.

On a related note, recently, the UN reported that a global recession is a serious danger in 2020. The poor growth in developed and developing countries shows the prospect of a global downturn in the next year is a visible and present danger. In a flagship review, UNCTAD—the UN’s trade and development body—said that 2019 will continue the weakest development in a decade and there was a peril of the decline turning into outright tightening in the next year.

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